“leaked” fresh intelligence on Russia Russia is receiving renewed attention from the Biden administration, thanks to a “leaked” fresh intelligence assessment.
According to a senior US official with direct knowledge of the situation and another source with direct knowledge of the intelligence, the current US intelligence assessment shows that Russia is continuing its preparations for an invasion of Ukrainian territory.
“leaked” fresh intelligence on Russia
According to the assessment, which was described as “bleak” by the senior official, Russia could launch a strike in the coming days. Another senior US official stated that the United States continues to expect any Russian invasion to be preceded by a false flag operation.
Officials from the United States, on the other hand, caution that they do not know whether Putin has made a final decision to invade and that he may delay action or decide not to order it at all. Earlier predictions that Russia will launch a military operation this week were proven incorrect.
According to a senior US official and a senior Ukrainian government official, the United States has briefed the Ukrainian military on the latest assessment of the situation.
Speaking at the Munich Security Conference on Friday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken cited recent measures —
such as Russia’s addition of “leading edge forces” to its troops on Ukraine’s border — as evidence that Russia’s coercive tactics toward Ukraine are already in effect.
Everything we’re seeing, including everything you’ve described in the last 24 to 48 hours, is part of a plan that is already in play, according to Blinken, that involves creating false provocations, then responding to those provocations, and ultimately committing additional aggression against Ukraine.
Blinken stated that the actions taken by Russia in recent days have put the United States on high alert. According to him, “the realities are that, notwithstanding what Russia has stated in recent days about withdrawing forces from the border, this has not occurred.” “On the contrary, we are seeing an increase in the number of troops being sent to the border, including leading edge units that would be involved in any invasion. As a result, we must be kept up to date. We must maintain a high level of vigilance.”
President Joe Biden issued a warning on Thursday, saying that “every sign” points to Russia launching an invasion of Ukraine in the coming days. “I have a feeling that will happen within the next several days,” the President remarked on the South Lawn of the White House.
The United States is now on the lookout for indicators that Russian preparations have reached the last stage, which may include the loading of amphibious ships and the relocation of combat units closer to the Ukrainian border, among other things.
Austin says that Russia is mobilizing its military as though it were preparing to launch an attack on the United States.
NATO has spotted Russia moving and dispersing troops along the Ukrainian border, while also expanding its logistical capabilities in the region, according to Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. “They appear to be prepared to launch an offensive,” he added.
Also of worry to the United States is the possibility that Russia will attempt to fabricate a false pretext for an invasion by conducting assaults on its own territory or forces, which it would then blame on Ukraine or the West. Blinken presented a wide range of possible scenarios to the United States Security Council on Thursday morning. In his remarks, Blinken added that Russia may characterize the occurrence as ethnic cleansing or genocide, “making a mockery of a concept that we in this chamber do not take lightly.”
Separately, according to two people familiar with the intelligence, the United States has gotten information indicating that Russia purposefully misled the world when it stated earlier this week that some Russian military would begin withdrawing from Ukraine’s borders, sources said.
The Washington Post was the first to break the news of Russia’s purposeful deceit after receiving intelligence.
Putin had announced on Tuesday that Russia had decided to “partially withdraw soldiers” from Ukraine’s borders, and the Russian Defense Ministry released footage on Wednesday showing some forces and equipment leaving Crimea in accordance with that decision.
However, according to the sources, the United States has proof that Russia meant to deceive the West when it announced the drawdowns and has instead increased its troop presence and deployed personnel closer to the border in some regions.
In order to protect sensitive sources, the sources declined to go into greater detail about the evidence, but they stressed that the information about Russia’s deception was not only based on their activities on the ground, but was also based in part on intercepted communications. Further confirming previous reports, U.S. officials are aware of Russian military doctrine that explicitly supports deception — a notion known in Russian as “maskirovka,” which literally translates as “masking.”
Officials from the Obama administration confirmed this on Wednesday, telling reporters that, despite its announcements of a partial pullout, Russia had actually raised its troop strength by around 7,000 troops.
According to the officials, Putin’s outward display of openness to diplomacy was a ruse.
On Wednesday, one of the officials said, “Every indicator we have today indicates that they want merely to publicly offer to negotiate and make claims about de-escalation while covertly mobilizing for war.”
In addition, shelling has intensified considerably in eastern Ukraine in the previous day, which Ukraine has attributed to Russian-backed forces, according to the UN.